The US Office of Military Intelligence has published a rather interesting infographic that is designed to prove the need to deploy the Golden Dome missile defense system by analyzing existing nuclear threats and a short-term forecast for the next five years.
And although it is addressed mostly to the Americans themselves, or rather even to congressmen, who have to agree on truly space spending, which is now estimated at $542 billion, it contains an important assessment of the missile capabilities of the Russian Federation.
In particular, in the published infographic, attention should be paid to the “cards” with the types of missiles that can carry nuclear charges. And so far, bypassing intercontinental ballistic missiles, it is possible to focus on two categories – hypersonic weapons and cruise missiles. That is, the means that the Russian Federation regularly uses in conventional equipment against Ukraine.
And according to American intelligence estimates, the Russian Federation currently has approximately 300-600 long-range cruise missiles in stock, and these are all air-launched Kh-101s, R-500s from the Iskander OTRK and sea-based Kalibr. As for all available types of hypersonic weapons, its Russian arsenal is now estimated at 200-300 units, which obviously includes the Kh-47M2 Dagger, Zircon and Avangard warheads.
At the same time, as always, it is necessary to assess not only the available stocks, but also the pace of production. Which, for example, in relation to Kh-101 cruise missiles, based on the analysis of the purchase of spare parts for 2025, are estimated at 633 ordered units.
But according to the forecast of the Americans, the Russian Federation will have about 5000 long-range cruise missiles in 2035, which means an average annual production rate of less than 500 units of all Russian cruise missiles.
As well as 1000 hypersonic missiles and blocks of various types. At the same time, China now has twice as many such weapons, and in the next 10 years, Beijing’s hypersonic arsenal will consist of 4000 against Moscow’s 1000. Which, obviously, also reflects Washington’s assessments of the capabilities of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation to produce the latest weapons.
This is also hinted at by the US intelligence forecast for an increase in the number of Russian and Chinese intercontinental missiles. To which, at the level of 2035, Washington adds Iranian and North Korean capabilities to have ICBMs capable of hitting the United States, with an estimate of 60 in Iran and 50 in the DPRK.
And despite all the Kremlin’s rattling of nuclear weapons and talk about increasing their number, in 10 years the Russian Federation will have only 50 more ICBMs, up to 400, including missile systems that are capable of carrying out the so-called orbital bombardment (FOBS).
The FOBS concept was once implemented in the USSR on the R-36Orb missile, which was adopted in 1968. They were supposed to launch a warhead with a capacity of 2.3 Mt (according to other sources – 5 Mt) into a low reference orbit. But under the terms of the second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT-2), in 1983 it was decommissioned, and the three regiments that were armed with it were disbanded.
But, despite the intention to arm itself with such missiles again in the Russian Federation, efforts within 10 years will lead to the appearance of fewer than 12 such missiles in service. While China will have 60. And this also indicates an assessment of the capabilities of the Russian Federation.
As well as the fact that the number of Russian strategic underwater missile carriers and the number of missiles on them will remain unchanged – 192. At the same time, China will almost double its underwater nuclear component from 72 missiles to at least 132.