The UK Defense Intelligence Explains Wagner Group’s Role in Belarus
It is highly likely that fewer than 1,000 russian Wagner Group mercenaries remain in Belarus. They have been present in the country since June 2023, at which point there were 8,000 Wagner Group mercenaries. Wagner Group almost certainly continues to provide training to Belarusian military and security forces, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
It is unlikely that Aleksandr Lukashenko would use the Wagner Group mercenaries beyond their current remit. They are involved in the training of Ministry of Interior troops but are highly unlikely to participate directly in maintaining domestic or border security in Belarus.
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The continued presence of Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus almost certainly also benefits russia’s war effort by compelling Ukraine to maintain defensive positions and personnel along its northern border with Belarus to protect from potential future incursions.
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