French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that France’s new armament plan will depend on “political and budgetary choices.” However, he has already indicated the areas where the first additional investments are planned.
Rafale aircraft
The French Ministry of Defense plans to expand its current procurement plans by 20 to 30 Dassault Rafale multirole aircraft. It is unclear which version, but in 2023, France bought an additional 42 such machines of the latest version of the Tranche 5.
These aircraft were to be delivered between 2027 and 2032, cost around €5 billion, and enable the removal of a significant proportion of the aging Mirage 2000s from service. Now it looks like this order will increase to 62-72 machines and it seems that these will be all Tranche 5 standard machines.
The Rafale multirole aircraft today really has only one drawback – the lack of physical stealth. In addition, this machine is integrated with a whole range of types and classes of modern armament, has advanced electronic warfare systems and a very good radar, which not so long ago outclassed the Russian Su-35 radar during comparative tests in Egypt.
So while it is inferior to the 5th generation aircraft, it is capable of facing and achieving an advantage over everything that is currently able to be produced by Russia, whose Su-57 aircraft is a machine with very debatable parameters.
At the beginning of 2025, France had 98 Rafale B and C versions in service, as well as 41 Rafale M carrier-based aircraft. In addition, 56 more machines (including two naval ones) were ordered from the aforementioned order for 42 aircraft, and from orders compensating for the transfer of used Rafale from the French Aerospace Force to export customers (Greece, Croatia).
Domestic orders will therefore increase to 76-86 aircraft, and the total number of Rafale should reach from 174 to 184 aircraft plus 63 M versions.
It is not clear when it will be possible to expand their fleet in this way. The manufacturer of the Rafale, Dassault, has a very rich portfolio of export orders. At the end of 2024, according to its own information, it included 220 aircraft, including 56 for France and as many as 164 for export (customers are: United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Greece, Egypt, Qatar, Croatia and Serbia). And there are more orders on the doorstep, including an order for the Rafale M for India, expected in March or April.
The manufacturer plans to expand the annual production of these planes to 36 copies per year, but this is very difficult for now. It is not known when and if it will be possible to achieve it at all.
In 2023, only 13 new aircraft were delivered, of which 11 for France and 2 for export customers, and in 2024, 21 aircraft, of which 14 went to the French forces and 7 for export. Therefore, the production capacity is growing and is comparable to the Russian ones today (Russia is handing over 20-30 combat aircraft of all types to the armed forces per year), but still small considering the scale of orders.
Especially since in parallel in 2023 Dassault received orders for 60 Rafale (42 for France and 18 for export), and in 2024 for another 30 (all export).
It seems, therefore, that in order to relatively quickly start strengthening the potential of the French combat aviation, Dassault will have to invest even more decisively than before in expanding its production lines, and state assistance will be needed for this purpose.
Of course, purchasing aircraft is one thing, and precision ammunition purchased for them in large quantities is a completely different issue. And it is this that is the main challenge from the point of view of France and Europe today.
Ships
Another announcement is the increase in the planned French fleet of surface combat units. Instead of 15, France will have 18 surface combat ships. Currently, two Horizon class destroyers (7,000 tons of standard displacement) and 8 FREMM-class frigates (local designation is Aquitane-class destroyer, 6,000 tons of displacement) are in service.
They were to be complemented by five FDI (Frégate de Défense et d’Intervention) frigates with a displacement of 4.5 thousand tons each. These vessels are already under construction and were supposed to displace the older and much smaller (less than 3,000 tons) La Fayette-class ships from front-line service in a 1:1 ratio. However, the latest announcements indicate that their builder, the DCNS shipyard, will receive an order for three more such vessels and the number of active frigates, not counting the less valuable reconnaissance and patrol frigates, will be 18 units.
Again, there is a challenge related to delivery times. Deliveries of French FDI frigates were to befor the years 2025 – 2032 (the first of them, Amiral Ronarc’his almost ready). It is not known whether it will be possible to fit additional ships into the queue in such a way that eight of them will be built at the same time, instead of five. If not, then deliveries will continue into the late 2030s, and it may be too late to play a role in a future eventual conflict. Especially since another 4 FDI frigates are currently being built for export to Greece, and the first two of them are even at the stage of equipping.
As in the case of the Rafale aircraft, it will be possible to increase the production capacity of domestic shipyards.
Drones and EW systems
The latest announcement by Minister Lecornu concerned the acceleration of the acquisition of drones and electronic warfare systems. The French do not provide numerical details here, nor when it comes to the types or classes of the acquired equipment. However, this reaction is understandable, given that currently it is drones and electronic warfare systems that can disrupt (or protect) them that are crucial for achieving success in warfare today.
Regardless of what weapons systems are purchased here or whose deliveries are accelerated, France has a large production and development capacity.
It seems that the current announcements may be only the beginning of the French revolution when it comes to regaining military capabilities by France and Europe more broadly. Today, it is commented that France is the first country to shake off the pacifist apathy after Denmark. Of course, the countries of NATO’s eastern flank, such as Poland, Romania, the Scandinavians and the Balts, shook off this stagnation much earlier.
