Despite the fact that a number of Western media outlets have come out with news that Donald Trump has ordered to completely stop providing weapons to Ukraine, it should be noted right away that this information has not yet been confirmed and voiced only by unnamed officials from Washington.
Of course, there is always the most pessimistic scenario, according to which the United States really suspends absolutely all assistance to Ukraine, directly playing into the hands of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the structure of American aid is quite extensive and it may be difficult even for Trump to stop all of it.
In particular, there are three main programs to help Ukraine with weapons: the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and Foreign Military Financing (FMF). If the first two are quite well-known (PDA – weapons from warehouses, USAI – contracts for the production of new ones), then the FMF was not mentioned quite little due to its small volume. For example, for 2024 – $1.6 billion, and its essence is that Ukraine could buy American weapons on its own with these funds.
At the same time, it is possible not to count on additional injections of money into these programs. Because the Trumpists “have no appetite for this”, as the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Mike Johnson said back on February 21. But now the question is whether the assistance that has already been announced will be provided.
At the same time, the easiest remedy for Trump is to stop the delivery of weapons under the Presidential Drawdown Authority program – presidential withdrawal. This is really the authority and decision of the US President to reduce stockpiles of American weapons in the interests of a third country. That is, in theory, Trump can really stop all the weapons that did not reach Ukraine. How much exactly is unknown, but from December 2 to January 9, Joe Biden allocated $ 2.975 billion for PDA.
Foreign Military Financing – also, in theory, can be suspended in the key of concluding new agreements, if all funds have not yet been used, as well as the actual actual implementation of existing ones. Because, in any case, the FMF program is implemented by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA). That is, it can be “cut”, as well as the USAID humanitarian program.
It is more difficult to deal with Trump’s real possibility of blocking probably the most important program for Ukraine at the moment, the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). Because this is about long-term contracts with American defense companies for the production and maintenance of weapons, military equipment and ammunition for Ukraine. For 2024, a total of $14.6 billion was announced under this program, and this is exactly about the weapons that were to be supplied in 2025-2026.
On the one hand, these are contracts directly with arms manufacturers, which have already been concluded and financed. On the other hand, they still pass through the US Department of Defense, which is the customer in the interests of Ukraine. It should also be remembered that time also passes between the announcement of the USAI package and the actual conclusion of contracts, and if some contracts have not been concluded since December 30, when the last package under this program was announced, there is a risk that this will not happen.
But in addition to the real legal issues of allocating assistance, we should not forget about one absolutely practical side of the issue – real transportation. And this is already carried out directly by the US armed forces or contractors. At the same time, it is precisely the actual movement of weapons that can be influenced by the relevant orders from Washington.