Irreversible Fate: russia Cannot Repair Its Submarines in the Black Sea – Loss Is Just a Matter of Time
After the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck the B-237 Rostov-on-Don submarine of russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet for the second and final time, a very important conclusion might have been overlooked: the enemy has no capability to repair its submarines in the Black Sea.
It should be recalled that the Defense Forces of Ukraine have already successfully attacked this submarine with Storm Shadow cruise missiles this fall. At that time, the submarine was located in the dry dock of the Sevastopol Marine Plant. The submarine received serious damages in the bow and in the center of the hull.
Only in June 2024, Rostov-on-Don was repaired to a condition that allowed it to stay afloat and was moved to the Kilen Bay, where the 13th Ship Repair Plant is located. It was there, during the continuation of repairs while afloat, that this submarine was apparently sunk.
Currently, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have demonstrated the capability to destroy russian submarines in the still-occupied Sevastopol. This is a crucial aspect, as the Black Sea still hosts three more submarines of the Project 636 Varshavyanka: B-265 Krasnodar, B-268 Velikiy Novgorod, and B-271 Kolpino, as well as one submarine of the 877 Paltus project: B-871 Alrosa.
The primary submarine repair yard in the Black Sea for russia is Sevastopol Shipyard.
At the same time, russian submarines currently have no possibility of leaving the Black Sea due to Turkey’s closure of the Bosporus. Furthermore, their escape via the “black route” through the Sea of Azov and the Don River is highly doubtful. The only possible alternative is the shipyard in Novorossiysk, which has never worked on submarines. This is also not a specialty for shipbuilding and repair enterprises in Kerch.
Currently, all submarines in russia remain without the ability for full repair because they would need to be brought into the occupied Sevastopol under threat of attack. Therefore, disabling four russian submarines is just a matter of time.
