Trump’s coming to power in the United States was a serious challenge for Europeans, and recently, at the Ramstein meeting, the newly elected head of the US Department of Defense, Pete Getseth, actually outlined the security future of the world, and then we talked about the fact that the United States officially announced the destruction of Europe’s global security.
An important question in all this is how, if necessary, Europe will defend itself without the United States and what is needed for this at all, there are reflections on such theses in an interesting analysis from Bruegel together with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
First of all, they voice a fairly simple but important conclusion – “Europe must be able to defend itself from Russia, with or without the United States” and taking into account this fact, the researchers decided to analyze how many weapons and troops European armies will need, taking into account the fact that the United States will still withdraw its troops from Europe.
This is followed by an equally logical remark – the most important task for Europe today is to continue to support Ukraine, because “experienced Ukrainian military today is the most effective deterrent against Russia’s attack on the EU.” Earlier, we talked about the fact that if the United States stops helping Ukraine, Europe will need up to $350 billion.
NATO member countries estimate the probable horizon on which the Russian Federation can attack Europe at 3-10 years, one of the important markers in this context is the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises “Zapad”, which are to take place this summer and should show the ability of the Russian military leadership to conduct large-scale exercises during the war.
According to the RAND think tank, according to the existing agreements, provided that the Russian Federation attacks Europe, the United States should transfer 200 thousand troops to the region, thus increasing their number to 300 (taking into account the fact that 100 thousand are already in the region). Therefore, assessing Europe’s needs to strengthen defense without the participation of the United States, the publication primarily relies on such a number of personnel and calls the need for about 50 brigades.
Actually, it is worth noting here that this is not the first time that this assessment is publicly voiced in one context or another, for example, last autumn it followed from NATO documents that they lacked 49 brigades, and earlier an estimate was published with a much larger spread and in total it was about 30-50 brigades.
But the question is not only in personnel, but also in weapons and military equipment, in particular, as noted in the publication, in order to “prevent a rapid breakthrough of the Russian Federation” in the Baltic direction, at least 1400 tanks, another 2000 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 units of artillery systems and multiple launch rocket systems will be needed. This is more than there are now in countries such as Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom.
Ammunition is also needed – at least a million 155-mm shells, this is a supply for 90 days. Apart from other weapons, including drones, the need for long-range drones is estimated at 2000 per year, and this estimate actually looks somewhat underestimated. Of course, aviation and transport capacities are important.