Ukrainian F-16s may be left without proper maintenance if the Trumpists continue to block the supply of aid to Ukraine. Right now, we can talk about updating the software of the AN/ALQ-131 electronic warfare container, as some Western media wrote about, but globally it is necessary to understand that the entire combat capability of this fighter really depends on the United States.
In particular, there is the question of where to get spare parts, service engines, systems, components and assemblies of the F-16 itself. And also, where to get weapons for it, in particular AIM-9 and AIM-120 air-to-air missiles, along with means of destroying ground targets.
But it should be understood that there is no “magic button” that allows you to remotely turn off the F-16 from Washington. And without official maintenance, fighters can fly for quite a long time. Moreover, it is currently unknown whether the United States has blocked the re-export of weapons to Ukraine, because the latter means only what it will be necessary to order through friendly European countries.
And if, nevertheless, we imagine that the Trumpists decided to completely block the use of the F-16 by the Air Force, then this will only mean a gradual degradation of the capabilities of these aircraft. And there are two quite illustrative examples in the world when the United States has already stopped supporting its combat aircraft.
The closest example to current realities is Venezuela. In 2005, the United States imposed an embargo against this country, which at that time was updating its 24 F-16A / Bs under the MLU (Mid Life Upgraded) program, which were delivered from 1983 to 1985. And since that time, these aircraft have not officially had access to American spare parts. But F-16s in Venezuela continue to fly, however, definitely not in such quantities, because the only way to maintain their flight readiness is only cannibalism and gray schemes for importing components.
Another example is Iran, which has been under an arms embargo by the United States since 1984. Iran ordered the first batch of 80 F-14 fighters back in 1974, becoming the only foreign operator of these carrier-based aircraft, but managed to receive 79.
The number of Iranian F-14s due to losses during the war, accidents, catastrophes, hijackings, aging and cannibalism has been reduced without alternative and is now estimated at about 10 aircraft. At the same time, so that Iran could not get spare parts for the F-14, the United States carefully disposed of all spare parts and decommissioned aircraft in the late 2000s. And the only place where you can still see the F-14 in the sky is Iran. In particular, this aircraft became the “star” of the 12th International Aerospace Exhibition on Kish Island in December 2024.
That is, in any case, we are not talking about the fact that “tomorrow” the F-16s will not be able to take to the skies even in the worst-case scenario of a total US ban, even on re-export. Of course, it is enough to estimate on the example of sanctioned countries exactly how long this or that American weapon can live. But the fact is that, as it turned out, the combat capability of all American weapons around the world, and with it the defense capability of countries, depends on the will of one person.
Therefore, now all over the civilized world they are asking very similar questions. And, for example, in Canada, as well as in Germany, they say that it is necessary to cancel the agreement for the purchase of F-35s, which, as digital weapons, is much more dependent on software updates, the source code of which foreign users do not have access to.