Despite reports from several Western media outlets that Donald Trump has ordered a complete halt to arms assistance to Ukraine, it should be noted that this information has not been confirmed and was only stated by unnamed Washington officials.
Of course, there is always the most pessimistic scenario, in which the United States really suspends all aid to Ukraine. At the same time, the structure of U.S. aid is quite complex, and it may be difficult even for Trump to cut it all off.
In particular, there are three main programs of arms assistance to Ukraine: Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and Foreign Military Financing (FMF). While the first two are quite well known (PDA – weapons from stockpiles, USAI – contracts for the production of new weapons), FMF has been mentioned rather little due to its small volume. For instance, $1.6 billion was allocated for 2024, and the essence of this allocation is that Ukraine could use the funds to purchase American weapons independently.
At the same time, no additional money can be expected to be allocated to these programs. The Trumpists have “no appetite for this,” as Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson on stated February 21. Now, the question remains whether the assistance that has already been announced will be provided.
At the same time, the easiest way for Trump to do this is to stop delivering weapons under the Presidential Drawdown Authority program. This is the authority and decision of the U.S. president to reduce American arms stockpiles in the interest of a third country. That is, in theory, Trump could stop all the weapons that have not yet reached Ukraine. While the exact amount is unknown, Joe Biden allocated $2.975 billion for PDA from December 2 to January 9.
Foreign Military Financing could also, in theory, be suspended in the context of new agreements if all funds have not yet been used, as well as in the implementation of existing agreements. In any case, the FMF program is implemented by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA). That is, it can be cut, similar to the USAID humanitarian program.
It is more difficult to assess the real possibility of Trump blocking what is likely the most important program for Ukraine at the moment – the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). It is about long-term contracts with American defense companies for the production and maintenance of weapons, military equipment and ammunition for Ukraine. For 2024, $14.608 billion was allocated under this program, intended for weapons to be delivered in 2025 and 2026.
On the one hand, these are contracts directly with arms manufacturers that have already been signed and financed. On the other hand, which acts as the customer on behalf of Ukraine. It should also be noted that there is a delay between the announcement of the USAI package and the actual signing of contracts. If some contracts have not been concluded since December 30, when the last package under this program was announced, there is a risk they may not be happened.
In addition to the real legal issues of allocating aid, we should not forget about transportation. This is carried out directly by the U.S. Armed Forces or by contractors. At the same time, the actual delivery of weapons may be influenced by relevant orders from Washington.
Earlier War News Hub reported about how much weaponry Trump can deny Ukraine.