Changes in the geopolitical environment will require significant adjustments in resource expenditures, and this perspective must be understood
If the United States stops providing military aid to Ukraine, European countries will need to increase their support by an additional $100 to $350 billion, depending on how the situation unfolds on the battlefield.
It should be noted that the ground component of a potential peacekeeping force of 30,000 troops would be insufficient, given the size of Ukraine and the current length of the frontline.
This perspective is outlined in a recent publication by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank. We will highlight the most important points.
Given the current situation, it would be especially important for Ukraine to increase the supply of anti-aircraft missiles for the Patriot systems and other similar systems, as well as to receive long-range AGM-158 JASSM missiles for use with F-16 aircraft, without any political restrictions. This is more of an “ideal model” than an opportunity that Ukraine can get now.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that, according to the authors of the IISS, European countries lack the industrial capacity to produce all the weapons and ammunition that the United States has been supplying to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Although estimates show that, over the course of the war, the Americans have provided a total of $60 billion in military aid, while European countries have given Ukraine 40 billion euros. The difference is not as significant as it might seem at first glance.
Moreover, IISS experts believe that even if the United States maintains its current level of defense support, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to deter russians on the front line. Even if a “ceasefire” is achieved, Europe will still need to increase its supply of weapons and other military aid to Ukraine by an additional 20 billion euros.
It is interesting that this publication cites the following historical parallel: when the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom were engaged in resolving the conflict in the Balkans in 1995-1996, American diplomats were particularly aggressive, insisting on the so-called Dayton Agreement. However, this ultimately failed to produce the desired result, and NATO had to launch a military operation against Serbia in 1999.
In fact, parallels with the history of wars in the former Yugoslavia lead to the conclusion that a peacekeeping contingent of 30,000 troops will not be sufficient for Ukraine. During that period, a contingent of 50,000 troops was deployed in Bosnia alone, and 39,000 in Kosovo.
Earlier, War News Hub reported on whether Europe can replace the U.S. in supplying weapons to Ukraine.